In December, 2019 (which feels like a decade ago), I had just wrapped up my degree in Neuroscience and wanted to see where I stood alongside all the other college graduates of the year. I came up with a set of waffle charts showing the number of graduates in several different categories but decided not to publish them.
Well, I’ve changed my mind. No longer will they sit in a file on my computer. Here is my place in the US Education Data.
First, I wanted to see myself compared with the other 123 UT graduating neuroscience bachelors.
Here I am am next to all US neuroscience bachelors.
I can’t fit any longer, but here are UT and US neuroscience bachelors next to the other US bioscience bachelors.
And finally, for the broadest perspective of the bunch, here are all the US bachelors next to other degree recipients (Phd, Ma, certification etc.).
Because I’d like to see how in tune I am with the state of my fellow citizens, I am posting a predicted electoral map for the 2020 Presidential Election. Much is this is derived from the polls, but as you can see, I make several calls that don’t strictly follow the polling leader.
Consistent polling leads for Biden
Improvements in polling methodology from 2016
Extremely consistent dissaproval for Trump across his entire presidency
Democratic gains in the suburbs in 2018
I think many of the mid-west states that Hillary Clinton lost will return to Joe Biden. In Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, he has consistently led Donald Trump by wider and more consistent margins than Clinton. More importantly, pollsters have learned from 2016, and more heavily weigh the demographic makeup of Trump’s base this time around.
As Nate Silver of 538 has pointed out, polling biases rarely stay constant across elections, and there is reason to think a polling bias might even overweight Trump’s base this time around.
Florida burned Democrats so painfully in 2018 that I believe people discount Biden’s consistent polling lead here. Similarly, North Carolina has had him consistently leading for some time. Arizona has seen an even more robust Biden lead. I call these all for him.
The states I have the most trouble with are Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas. Georgia and Texas have been trending blue, and while they also burned Democrats in 2018, I believe the blue-trending suburbs and high turnout will be just enough to push them into Biden’s camp. Trump and Biden have been trading leads in Iowa and Ohio so I have the 2018 congressional elections in Iowa portending a Biden victory there, while Ohio barely stays in the Trump column.
Why This Could be Wrong
All of this could be wrong for many reasons, but I think there are a few likely candidates. First, undecided voters could swing to Trump as they did in 2016. This is unlikely to win him the electoral college outright, but could tip several close states in his favor.
Second, there could still easily be a polling bias in favor of Biden. Whether non-college educated white voters turnout for the first time for Trump, or people haven’t been honestly answering pollsters, it is certainly possible Trump outperforms his polls significantly.
Third, the presence of election shenanigans. While the polls have been steady, in many swing states, officials have implemented measures to restrict voting. Most recently, a GOP led effort attempted to throw out around 127,000 votes in Harris county (which is likely to vote for Biden). While this effort was struck down, other litigation will continue, especially in close states. However, if the election comes down to litigation, it’s likely that my prediction will have already been far off the mark.
No matter who you are, I hope this election gives you at least something to value. After all, in 2016, Californians legalized marijuana, and in Stockton, elected their inspiring mayor Michael Tubbs.
Imagine you wake up and find yourself in a maze. There are several paths ahead of you. Feeling no rush, you decide to go ahead and explore of it as much as you can. As you wander, you find that each pathway changes the types of thoughts and sensations that appear in your mind. Certain paths activate your vivid imagination. Others bring your life’s embarrassments to mind. You find that certain paths are extremely enjoyable to walk through, activating pleasant memories of someone you love or the ability to live and enjoy the present moment. While you enjoy spending time in these parts of the maze, somehow you always find yourself wandering away. Somehow, you find yourself walking the pathways that activate insecurities, your bodily pains, and all your visceral fears.
But you never stick to any one direction. For there is another trick to the maze. At any point, it can spontaneously transport you into another path without you realizing. One thought is suddenly replaced by another. The sounds of a barking dog by a pain in your hand; or the sight of a tree by the thought of the mysterious nature of the universe itself. Sometimes you realize what just happened. If the thought you were thinking was interesting enough, you can transport back to the location you came from and continue down that path. But all too often, you disappear from it without remembering at all.
One day you happen across a book in the maze. It contains a dusty map and a user guide. Deciding it’s probably worth reading, you try to get through it. It takes time and attention, but you make progress while wandering about. Many times, you misplace the book in one of the maze’s many turns. However, you always seem to eventually discover it again, determined this time to hold on harder. Determined to figure out the secrets to this world you find yourself in.
The book eventually teaches you how to teleport yourself above the maze to a room with a glass floor overlooking the maze – a bird’s eye view. Here, different pathways appear in view together and you are able to recognize the entrances to several pathways of thought. You can see those pathways dedicated to tactile sensation, pain, and discomfort. Then, there is the blurry jungle of emotions, thoughts, beliefs, and desires; difficult to dissect.
At some point after staring down at the maze, you lose focus and are returned to some pathway in it. But when you remember the book and this new practice you can always teleport back up again. With time, this process becomes seamless.
The book also teaches you another skill. You are able to detect when you are about to be teleported before it happens. You can make a mental note of this without becoming sucked into this new pathway. You feel the entrances to this particular thoughts light up and beckon your approach. But now, the book has taught how you might avoid its call.
If you were stuck in such a maze, life without this book would be chaotic and at times unbearable. But this is similar to the state that people already live in. Your mind is a maze. Some parts you may have mapped, but much, much more of it is a complete mystery. Your unconscious takes you down rabbit holes which feel incredibly important, only then to place your attention somewhere completely different mere seconds later. This constantly occurs in your waking hours, almost always without you being aware of it. This is the normal state of consciousness.
In the maze, the book provides knowledge of how to teleport to the room observing the mind. In real life, mindfulness provides something similar – the opportunity to notice before diving into a train of thought. It allows you the capacity to consent to mind wandering. It creates a new appreciation for the manifestations of mind without being blinded by them. And when negative emotions strike and attempt to bend you to their will, mindfulness allows you an escape room. Here, you can understand the power and majesty of such emotions without being subservient to them. This is a great benefit of mindfulness and something I couldn’t help but notice in my time meditating.